The Reality Behind South Korea’s Declining Population

Authored by: Allison Park

Art by: Lindsey Li

In 2023, South Korea’s fertility rate- the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime-  dropped to just 0.65, the lowest in the world and placing the country at risk of population collapse. Projections suggest that by 2044, South Korea could become a “hyper-aged” society with a median age of 56, confronting unprecedented challenges in sustaining its economy, diminishing workforce, and healthcare system [1]. Despite years of its government spending trillions of won annually on incentives to encourage childbearing, the country’s fertility rate continues to decline at an alarming rate [2]. Similar demographic trends in Japan, China, and many European nations underscore that South Korea’s crisis is not isolated, but a warning for policymakers worldwide who face similar challenges [1].

The public health consequences of this demographic shift are profound. A shrinking younger population means fewer healthcare workers, nurses, and caregivers, just as the demand for elder care and chronic disease management services soars with an aging population [1]. Already, one in three Koreans is projected to be over 65 by mid-century, placing immense pressure on public health insurance, pension systems, and long-term care infrastructure [3]. In rural areas, hospitals, maternity wards, and schools have begun closing as the workforce dwindles, limiting the nation's capacity to care for its citizens. 

To prevent this, experts emphasize the need for systemic adaptation. The government must expand elder-care capacity, reallocate health funding toward chronic disease prevention, and invest heavily in robotics, AI, and telemedicine to offset workforce shortages. Some have also proposed reforming immigration policy to attract healthcare professionals from abroad- an approach countries like Japan and Germany, who similarly grapple with aging populations and low fertility rates, have already adopted with limited success [1]. Such measures highlight that the demographic issue is not only a question of population size, but a public health crisis that severely undermines economic productivity. 

Still, the roots of South Korea’s declining fertility rate extend beyond health infrastructure to complex social and economic issues. Young adults increasingly delay or forego childbearing due to soaring housing prices, costly education, and the burdens of long working hours [2]. In particular, surveys consistently find that women experience heavy opportunity costs when balancing careers and family life, especially with the prevalence of gender-based discrimination. Korea has the largest gender pay gap among the 38 OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, with women earning only 63% of what men earn [4]. Women also hold just 16% of managerial positions, compared to an OECD average of 32% [5]. Korean labor minister Lee Jung Sik has directly acknowledged the link between workplace inequality and declining fertility rates [6].

For many women, combining motherhood with career advancement feels impossible. Companies often discriminate against pregnant women, even questioning their family plans. As Seoul resident Cho Joo-yeon put it, “I’ve never wanted to be a pregnant person. I’m not going to sacrifice my career for a child” [7].

Research supports these perceptions. A Korean Women’s Development Institute study found that women facing workplace discrimination were less likely to have children [8]. Among mothers with a second child, unemployment was 15% higher compared to those with only one child, while men’s employment remained unchanged, suggesting that many women were pushed out of the workforce after childbirth [9]. 

South Korea’s government has tried to reverse these trends since the mid-2000s through a wide range of pronatalist policies: direct cash transfers to parents, subsidized childcare, tax breaks, and housing support [2]. More recently, President Yoon Suk Yeol declared a “national emergency” on fertility and proposed creating a new ministry devoted to the issue. The government has also promised expanded parental leave, greater workplace flexibility, and reduced education burdens [10].

Yet the results so far are underwhelming. Studies show that direct financial incentives such as cash payments have at best short-lived effects. Countries like Hungary and Sweden that briefly boosted fertility through subsidies or “speed bonuses” soon saw rates fall again once novelty wore off [1]. In South Korea, evidence suggests that long-term structural reforms- affordable childcare, equitable workplaces, and robust health systems- are far more effective [2].

Ultimately, South Korea’s demographic crisis is not only a sociopolitical issue, but a public health emergency. Without reimagining how care, gender equity, and health are integrated into society, even the most generous financial incentives will fail to restore balance. As countries around the world confront similar aging trends, it is imperative that they watch South Korea closely, for the country’s reality may soon become the global norm. 

References

1. Kim J. K. (2025). The predetermined future: tackling South Korea's total fertility rate crisis. Clinical and experimental pediatrics, 68(3), 225–227. https://doi.org/10.3345/cep.2024.00871

2. Jeong, K., Yoon, Ji., Cho, H.J., Kim, S., Jang, J. (2022). The Relationship Between Changes in the Korean Fertility Rate and Policies to Encourage Fertility. B,C Public Health. https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-022-14722-4

3. Hamill-Stewarrt, C. (2024). South Korea’s Fertility Rate Should Be a Warning to the World. Salzburg Global. https://www.salzburgglobal.org/news/latest-news/article/south-koreas-fertility-rate-should-be-a-warning-to-the-world.

4. OECD. (2017). The Pursuit of Gender Equality: An Uphill Battle. OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264281318-en. 

5. Gopinath, G. (2022). Gender Equality Boosts Economic Growth and Stability. International Monetary Fund. www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/09/27/sp092722-ggopinath-kgef-gender-korea.

6. Davies, C., Buseong, K., Inagaki, K. (2023). It's a boys' club': South Korea's woeful record on women in work. Financial Times. www.ft.com/content/86a36a1e-47dd-4b6d-93bf-91dad5ca19f9. 

7. Rashid, R. (2023). South Korea has so few babies it is offering new parents $10,500. Aljazeera. www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/12/south-korea-splashes-the-cash-in-scramble-to-fix-fertility-crisis. 

8. Kim, J.H., Oh, S.S., Bae, S.W., Park, E.C., Jang, S.I. (2019). Gender Discrimination in the Workplace: Effects on Pregnancy Planning and Childbirth among South Korean Women. National Library of Medicine. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6695730/pdf/ijerph-16-02672.pdf. 

9. Lim, S. (2021). Socioeconomic differentials in fertility in South Korea. National Library of Medicine. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8153686/. 

10. Kreimer, S. (2024). South Korea's Plan to Avoid Population Collapse. Think Global Health. https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/south-koreas-plan-avoid-population-collapse.